The stock market has surged to record highs since Kamala Harris entered the presidential race in July. Will the good vibes continue if she wins the White House? The answer might differ sector-by-sector.
Fortune surveyed analysts and academics about what stocks could rally on a Harris victory, as well as what companies might see their shares drop. Here are some companies to keep in mind:
Harris and former President Donald Trump differ starkly when it comes to climate and energy policy. As vice president, Harris cast the tie-breaking vote to pass the Inflation Reduction Act. Joe Biden’s signature climate law passed without any Republican support, and Trump has pledged to dismantle the system of tax credits and subsides that he’s dubbed a “green new scam.”
Whether Trump would be able to follow through on those campaign promises is unclear, but a Harris victory is likely much better news for renewables. Shares of First Solar, America’s largest builder of solar panels, have dropped 16% this month amid a backdrop of industry volatility and election uncertainty. A Harris victory could reward investors who have bought the dip.
A Harris administration could also help electric vehicle manufacturers looking to gain ground on Elon Musk’s Tesla, particularly as the EV giant’s CEO has put his full support behind Donald Trump. Musk’s political activism, including his public spats with California officials, has already presented an opportunity to companies like Rivian to pick off disgruntled progressive customers. As Musk seemingly bets Tesla’s future on autonomous driving, government subsidies and tax credits are critical to the chances of companies like Rivian to compete.
Offshore wind figures to benefit from a Harris win as well. Spanish energy giant Iberdrola has invested over $13 billion into the U.S. and UK over the past 12 months, fueling a 150% surge in profits for the first nine months of the year. Its American subsidiary, Avangrid, is available for a modest price-to-earnings ratio just north of 12, according to S&P Global.
Then there are less obvious choices. Shares of defense contractors like Honeywell, for example, have somewhat moved in tandem with chances of a Harris victory, according to a preliminary analysis by Georgetown University’s Michael Bailey. That could reflect how Harris is presumably a surer bet to continue America’s support for Ukraine against Russia’s invasion.
Finally, a Harris victory could allow major importers to breathe a sigh of relief. Trump’s proposals of at least a 10% worldwide tariff and a 60% tax on all Chinese goods would not be good news for big retailers like Target, so a Harris victory could erase concerns currently priced in to its shares.
See also: 5 Stocks to buy if Trump wins—and 5 to sell
Some analysts are very skeptical of trading based off who takes the Oval Office. That includes Jay Hatfield, the CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, who is much more focused on how overall tax policy, including the corporate tax rate, could affect the overall market.
Even he, however, said that financials are at the heart of the so-called “Trump trade” because of the prospect of lighter regulation. JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs are two stocks investors could pile into in the event of a Trump victory, while a Harris win might prompt a sell-off.
Stocks heavily impacted by climate policy, however, might be most worth watching. Just as Harris is clearly the better option for renewables, said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, companies in sectors like offshore oil, coal, and foreign-built solar could be among the biggest losers.
Therefore, oil driller Schlumberger might be a stock to stay away from if Harris takes the White House, Stovall said. The same goes for Consol Energy, he added, one of the bigger names in coal.
While a Harris administration may be kinder than Biden’s to Big Tech, companies centered around the gig economy could be at risk, according to a note from Bank of America seen by CNBC. Investors may try to rush out of Uber, for example, if the vice president is promoted by the American people.
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