Conference Board confidence index at 92.9 vs. 94.2 consensus. Here’s confidence vs. U.Mich sentiment (all standardized).
Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. Source: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, and author’s calculations.
Here’s the expectations vs. current situation picture:
Update, 3:36pm CT:
Substituting SF News Sentiment index, per suggestion Paweł Skrzypczyński:
Figure 2: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), SF Fed News Sentiment-Shapiro-Sudhof-Wilson (light green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. March observation for SSW index is through 3/23. Source: UMichigan, Conference Board, SF Fed, and author’s calculations.
