Bitcoin surged past $121,000 today, pushing towards its all-time high as the fourth quarter of 2025 kicked off with renewed momentum for Bitcoin.
The rally follows a strong September finish, when Bitcoin gained about 5% to close around $114,000 — a performance that somewhat defied Bitcoin’s reputation for seasonal weakness.
Historically, when September has ended in the green, Bitcoin has often gone on to post outsized fourth-quarter gains. Data from Bitcoin Magazine Pro shows that in years such as 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024, fourth-quarter rallies averaged more than 50%.
That seasonal trend has already earned October the nickname “Uptober” among traders. Since 2015, the month has produced average gains of 21.8%, with November adding another 10.8%.
If history rhymes, Bitcoin could be on track to clear $150,000 before the end of the year.
According to Bitcoin Magazine Pro data, Bitcoin has climbed nearly 3% in 24 hours, advancing from around $117,500 to just over $121,000. Over the last month, Bitcoin has notched a gain of more than 9%, rising from roughly $110,700.
On a year-to-date basis, Bitcoin has delivered a return of 27%, underscoring its resilience despite ongoing volatility across broader markets.
With prices now less than 3% away from the all-time high of over $124,000, it looks like the stage is set for a breakout if buying pressure continues.
This latest surge came as traditional economic metrics reeled from the U.S. government’s shutdown at midnight after Congress failed to pass a funding bill. With Wall Street under pressure and economic data releases now on hold, investors flocked to hard assets.
This year’s gains also build on April’s halving event, which cut Bitcoin’s new supply in half — a milestone that has historically preceded significant upward pressure on price. At the same time, key liquidity signals are flashing green.
Global M2 money supply growth, stablecoin issuance, and a rally in gold — which Bitcoin has often tracked with a lag — all point to strengthening demand.
Citigroup analysts this week set a 12-month projection for Bitcoin at $181,000, citing robust inflows that could reach $7.5 billion by December.
“We are more positive on Bitcoin compared to Ether, as it captures an outsized portion of incremental flows into crypto markets,” Citi analysts wrote, adding that a friendlier regulatory environment could sustain momentum into 2026.
With Bitcoin already logging record highs in 2025, the fourth quarter now looms as a decisive stretch.
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