The Chicago Bears will host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football in Week 9.
The Bears are second in the NFC North with a 6-2 record, although they’re currently within a game of first and last. The Bucs have struggled with a 3-5 record, but they’re only half a game out of first in the NFC South.
This game features two outstanding defenses. Both teams’ strengths are their defenses, and both are elite at keeping the ball out of their opponents’ hands.
The Bears aren’t necessarily an elite defense in the traditional sense. They rank 21st in the NFL in points allowed per play (0.393) this season. Although they’ve struggled in that area, they rank eighth in the league in defensive EPA per play (-0.08) and sixth in defensive success rate (40.1%).
Chicago’s only giving up 20 points per game, which is the eighth-fewest in the NFL this season. That’s mainly because of their ability to control the ball, though. Opponents are averaging only 50.9 offensive plays per game against them, which is nearly seven fewer than the second-best team.
The Bucs have found more overall defensive success than the Bears, but they’re also elite at limiting their opponents. Overall, their opponents are averaging the third-fewest offensive plays (58.1) per game against them.
Tampa Bay is also allowing the eighth-fewest points per play (0.325) this season. They’re only giving up 18.9 points per game, which ranks fifth in the NFL. Their advanced metrics look elite as well, ranking first in defensive EPA per play (-0.20) and fifth in defensive success rate (40%).
Arguably the biggest key is how good Chicago’s defense has been at home. Although they’ve seen mixed results overall, the majority of those struggles have come on the road. They’re allowing only 0.289 points per play and 13 points per game in Chicago this season.
Both of these offenses are going to lean on their run games, keeping the clock moving. Chicago is willing to speed things up at times, but both of these offenses will also play slow. If neither can find big plays, which is fairly unlikely, the opportunities to beat this total are going to be limited.
Where to Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Chicago Bears under 47.5 points | -115
2026 NFL Season Betting Record: 11-14
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