Economy

Nowcasting Wisconsin NFP Employment | Econbrowser


Can we use national employment to nowcast Wisconsin employment? This endeavor is somewhat complicated by the pandemic. With DWD’s release today, we can evaluate the fit of the model.

Figure 1: Wisconsin NFP employment, August release (bold blue), July (light blue), nowcast based on US NFP 2021M07-2024M06 (red), +/- 1 std error bands. Source: BLS, DWD, author’s calculations. 

The nowcast is based on this single equation ECM:

 

 



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