From the Lewis, Mertens, Stock NY Fed WEI, and the Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims Economic Conditions Index:
Figure 1: WEI (blue), WECI plus 2% (tan), in %. Source: NY Fed via FRED, Baumeister et al.
For (certain to be revised) series through end-July, the recession has not yet arrived. No guarantees for August or thereafter.
For monthly indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, see here.
