ADP private NFP change came in at -33K, vs. +99K Bloomberg consensus. It’s well known that the ADP series is not particularly helpful for nowcasting the BLS series (coming out tomorrow). But using the relationship between the two series 2022M01-2025M05, what can we expect?
Figure 1: First log difference of private NFP employment from BLS (blue), from ADP (tan), both s.a. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED.
I estimate the relationship over this period.
While the growth rate of private NFP as measured by the BLS is correlated with that of NFP measured by ADP (at nearly one-to-one), it’s not particularly strong. Using this regression, here’s the nowcast:
Figure 2: Private NFP (black), nowcast using ADP (light blue square), +/- 1 standard error (gray +). Source: BLS, author’s calculations (see text).
The point estimate is for a -8K change, with a 60% band encompassing a loss of 122K and a gain of 105K. Bloomberg consensus is for +110K.