Headlines (Bloomberg) note increase in Conference Board’s Confidence index, for the first time in four months. However, the index remains pretty…
The $20 billion swap announced by Bessent (not on US Treasury website as far as I can…
Out today: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), WSJ mean (blue), WSJ +/- 20% bounds (gray), GDPNow of…
Effective September 30th, some 105000 Federal workers who had signed up for the Deferred Resignation Program will…
November futures for soybeans collapse upon Trump’s announcement: Source: barchart.com . Source link
Beware the aggregates. The slowdown is showing up in smaller firms first, according to BLS Business Employment Dynamics data. …
Down from January: Figure 1: Agricultural (food, feed and beverages) exports in mn$ (tan), in mn2017$ (blue),…
From Alberto Cavallo in the Harvard Gazette: See the interactive in the article. More on Cavallo et al. in this…
A lot of money is at stake. Would CBP be able to refund the monies collected (using…
That’s what Kalshi estimates the shutdown duration, as of today. What do we miss from BLS if that transpires? BEA?…