+77K vs. +141K (Bloomberg consensus). Using the 2021M07-2025M01 relationship between ADP and BLS measures (in log first differences), I nowcast +125 vs Bloomberg +108K (although the 95% prediction interval encompasses a drop to 135310K from January’s 135479K).
Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment from ADP (blue line, left scale), Bloomberg consensus (light blue square), private nonfarm payroll employment from BLS (red line, right scale), Bloomberg consensus (light red square), author’s nowcast (teal square). Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.
The author’s nowcast is based on 2021M07-2025M02 data, regressing first differenced log private BLS NFP on first differenced ADP private NFP, and lagged first differenced BLS private NFP (adj-R2 = 0.65, SER = 0.001, Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation test with 2 lags fails to reject no serial correlation null at 10%).