At It Again: “Donald Trump promises an ‘economic boom’ if he wins US election”

That’s a title from FT. Remember when Trump promised 4% growth (in May 2017)? How did that turn out?

Figure 1: GDP (black), and 4% growth counterfactual (red), both in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, and author’s calculations.

Some apologists will argue that, but for the pandemic, Mr. Trump’s goal would’ve been achieved. That might be the case (although as noted pre-pandemic, that was highly unlikely). However, even before the pandemic, at the NBER peak, real GDP was 1.2 trillion 2017$ below the Trump promise.