In a recent paper, Antoni and St. Onge (2024) have argued that the peak in GDP, properly measured, was in 2021Q4.
Source: Antoni and St. Onge (2024).
As noted in this post, I cannot — despite my best efforts — replicate their results (wherein they claim the appropriate deflator for GDP is up 40% instead of BEA reported 21.1%, sine 2019Q1). However, if all we produced and consumed (by households, firms, the government, and foreigners) was Big MacTM‘s, then one could argue that we have been in recession since 2022 (but are just coming out in 2024Q2).
Figure 1: US GDP expressed in Big Macs (brown, left log scale), and in bn.Ch.2017$ (black, right log scale), both SAAR. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Big Mac prices interpolated linearly from semi-annual reported prices. Source: BEA 2024Q2 3rd release/annual update, Economist, NBER, and author’s calculations.
Note that Antoni and St. Onge do not provide a spreadsheet of calculations to show how they obtained their 40% increase in deflator.