Probabilities have peaked, using a standard spread model. Here is an updated assessment of recession probabilities (for 12 months ahead),…
In a recent SF Fed Economic Letter, Sylvain Leduc, Huiyu Li, and Zheng Liu answered the question: “Are Markups Driving…
Released today by CEA: Well first a picture depicting plausibility: Onto the conclusion: Strategically targeted tariffs are an important tool…
I’ve spent the last week seeing lots of presentations on macro and international finance. Of particular interest are some papers…
CPI m/m (headline, core) below consensus (-0.1% vs +0.1%, +0.1 vs +0.2, respectively). Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation per Eeckhout (2023)…
…although incomplete data for 2022. Figure 1: Geometric average of reserve holdings (expressed in USD) for reporting central banks. Very…
NFP at +206K vs +191K. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red),…
More articles on dollar dominance, e.g. in Foreign Policy, Wells Fargo, vs. BitcoinNews. But most of the discussion centers on…
Several observers have pointed out the gap between civilian employment as measured by the CPS, and the nonfarm payroll employment…
CPS based series adjusted to NFP way below official NFP, early benchmark. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from CES (blue),…