Economy

Spreads in the Meatpacking Industry: Beef

Here’s the time series on beef farm-to-wholesale spread, in 1982-84$. Figure 1: Real retail price per pound (black line), wholesale-retail…

8 months ago

A Puzzle: Private NFP and the Preliminary Benchmark vs. Current Official

The ADP survey cumulative increase in private NFP since 2023M03 is 3.1mn, more than the 2.8mn reported in the current…

8 months ago

Conspiracy of Silence at the Treasury about the Definition of a Recession (!)

Not from the Onion, but rather from the Daily Signal, mouthpiece of the Heritage Foundation: The Treasury Department under President…

8 months ago

Grocery Prices and Wholesale Food Prices

The Harris Walz plan for reining in grocery prices appears to contain two components, one of which has attracted a…

8 months ago

EJ Antoni: “manufacturing is in recession”

From X, on Thursday: This is beyond ridiculous: industrial production and capacity utilization saw another massive downward revision, and Jul’s…

8 months ago

“Non-Essential Business Cycles” and Implications for the Imminent Recession Call

From a paper by Michele Andreolli, Natalie S. Rickard, and Paolo Surico (presented at NBER Summer Institute Monetary Economics sessions):…

8 months ago

Food at Home CPI Component: Unchanged Relative to January 2024

Prices are up relative to January 2021, but not relative to January 2024: Figure 1: CPI – food at home…

8 months ago

At It Again: “Donald Trump promises an ‘economic boom’ if he wins US election”

That’s a title from FT. Remember when Trump promised 4% growth (in May 2017)? How did that turn out? Figure…

8 months ago

Instantaneous Core Inflation: Five Measures

With the CPI release, we have new July observations for 3 series. Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained…

8 months ago

The Great Replacement “Theory” * Comes to Economics at Heritage

Heritage Foundation’s    EJ Antoni writes on X (August 2): Over the last year, native-born Americans have LOST 1.2 million…

8 months ago