Torsten Slok presents this graph, and writes “The bottom line is that the tailwind to consumer spending for homeowners and…
For whom the bell tolls? Undocumented? Documented but not naturalized? All non-native born? Native born with both parents undocumented? People…
From DWD today: Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (bold blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark series (pink), Wisconsin May Economic…
Messages from the WSJ July Survey: Source: July WSJ survey. Source: July WSJ survey. Source: July WSJ survey. Also,…
As of 7/15 and month ago: Source: Atlanta Fed, accessed 7/16/2024. The path has moved down noticeably over the last…
Probabilities have peaked, using a standard spread model. Here is an updated assessment of recession probabilities (for 12 months ahead),…
In a recent SF Fed Economic Letter, Sylvain Leduc, Huiyu Li, and Zheng Liu answered the question: “Are Markups Driving…
Released today by CEA: Well first a picture depicting plausibility: Onto the conclusion: Strategically targeted tariffs are an important tool…
I’ve spent the last week seeing lots of presentations on macro and international finance. Of particular interest are some papers…
CPI m/m (headline, core) below consensus (-0.1% vs +0.1%, +0.1 vs +0.2, respectively). Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation per Eeckhout (2023)…