Consumption and personal income ex-transfers growth accelerate. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), implied NFP from preliminary…
Or, “who needs a stinkin’ independent central bank, non-Trump edition.” Could this article explain why at 1:30 AM CST as…
U.Michigan consumer sentiment and Conference Board economic confidence rise. But expectations drop. Figure 1: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (blue,…
NBER BCDC indicators discussed here. Alternative below. Figure 1: Implied nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted…
In RealClearPolitics, a provocative thesis, from Vikram Maheshri (U. Houston) and Cliff Winston* (Brookings): The United States experienced a Great…
PCE deflator below 2%: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) for PCE deflator (black), for core PCE deflator (pink), CPI…
That’s Heritage Foundation economist EJ Antoni yesterday. Dr. Antoni continues: Increasingly, people are realizing that the 2% target is long…
Notice that I don’t say in or out of recession. Nonetheless, with slow growth (and per capita growth negative), there’s…
This probably seems like a silly question, but it’s actually a hard one to answer quantitatively. The standard measure is…
Industrial production -0.9% vs. +0.1% consensus (m/m).Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC, plus monthly GDP. …