Bloomberg consensus is 4%. This implies near trigger for the Sahm Rule (in real time):
Figure 1 (corrected): Real time Sahm Rule (blue), and consensus based on Bloomberg as of 7/4/2024 (tan square). Source: FRED, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations (corrected 7:22pm h/t Joseph).
If the unemployment rate instead hits 4.1%, then the Sahm rule would not indicate a recession (corrected 7:30). If the consensus is hit in June, and the unemployment rate stays constant at 4% through July then we’ll still be below threshold.
on the other hand, as Calculated Risk concluded yesterday, “Heavy truck sales are solid.”
Addendum: Moses Herzog brings my attention to Claudia Sahms’ caveat re: this time around.