Categories: Economy

Employment Situation and Business Cycle Indicators


NFP at +206K vs +191K.

Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2023M04=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q1 third release, S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (7/1/2024 release), and author’s calculations.

There are questions whether the CES is overstating employment growth, perhaps because of the birth-death model. Here is cumulative growth private NFP since March 2023 (last benchmarked data), compared against ADP’s series (which does not rely upon the birth-death model).

Figure 2: Private nonfarm payroll employment from BLS (blue), and from ADP (tan), in logs 2023M03=0. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, and author’s calculations.

Here’s the three month (nonannualized) growth rate of these two series.

Figure 3: Three month growth rate of private nonfarm payroll employment from BLS (blue), and from ADP (tan), calculated as log differences. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, and author’s calculations.



Source link

Washington Digital News

Share
Published by
Washington Digital News

Recent Posts

How to watch Super Bowl 2025 for free: Chiefs vs. Eagles on Sunday, February 9

The Caesars Superdome will host Super Bowl LXI on Sunday, February 9. Here's how to…

3 hours ago

Lower mortgage rates draw homeowners in — but keep home buyers out

Mortgage applications rose 2.2% in the last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association said. Source link

4 hours ago

Soybeans, Again | Econbrowser

You might well wonder why China didn’t retaliate against US soybean exports in the wake…

4 hours ago

They Didn't Take The Orange Pill, They Threw It Out

The son of the current President two days ago on Twitter told people it's time…

4 hours ago

China’s 60-second dramas head to the U.S. after beating box office

Producers in China now churn out 5,000 to 8,000 new mini-drama series a year, 10…

4 hours ago

Critics say Trump’s executive order banning transgender female athletes from competing is ‘a solution looking for a problem’

In many cases, states that banned transgender athletes could not cite instances where their participation…

4 hours ago