NFP at +206K vs +191K.
Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2023M04=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q1 third release, S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (7/1/2024 release), and author’s calculations.
There are questions whether the CES is overstating employment growth, perhaps because of the birth-death model. Here is cumulative growth private NFP since March 2023 (last benchmarked data), compared against ADP’s series (which does not rely upon the birth-death model).
Figure 2: Private nonfarm payroll employment from BLS (blue), and from ADP (tan), in logs 2023M03=0. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, and author’s calculations.
Here’s the three month (nonannualized) growth rate of these two series.
Figure 3: Three month growth rate of private nonfarm payroll employment from BLS (blue), and from ADP (tan), calculated as log differences. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, and author’s calculations.
The Caesars Superdome will host Super Bowl LXI on Sunday, February 9. Here's how to…
Mortgage applications rose 2.2% in the last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association said. Source link
You might well wonder why China didn’t retaliate against US soybean exports in the wake…
The son of the current President two days ago on Twitter told people it's time…
Producers in China now churn out 5,000 to 8,000 new mini-drama series a year, 10…
In many cases, states that banned transgender athletes could not cite instances where their participation…