St. Louis and NY Feds have new nowcasts.
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Survey of Professional Forecasters August median forecast (tan), GDPNow of 9/9 (blue square) and of 9/4 (blue open square), NY Fed 9/13 (red triangle-line), St. Louis Fed 9/13 nowcast (light green inverted triangle), 9/6 nowcast (inverted open triangle), Goldman Sachs (teal circle), all in bn.Ch.2017$. Nowcast levels calculated iterating growth rate to reported 2017Q2 2nd release GDP levels. Source: BEA 2024Q2 2nd release, Philadelphia Fed for SPF, Atlanta Fed (9/9), NY Fed (9/6), St. Louis Fed (9/6), Goldman Sachs (9/6), and author’s calculations.
Lewis, Mertens and Stock/NY Fed WEI at 2.27%, Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sim WECI at -0.19 implying 1.81% if trend is 2%.