ERS predicts 2.2% increase in food-at-home prices in 2025.
Figure 1: CPI food-at-home (black); ERS forecast of January (light blue square), ERS forecast of March (red triangle), ERS forecast of June (inverted green triangle). Source: BLS via FRED, ERS, and author’s calculations.
While food-at-home inflation has decreased, it still remains the fact that grocery prices are rising — not falling. Further PPI-food manufacturing continues to rise, so we can be reasonably confidence of continued grocery price increases.