Has the Recession Already Started?

Even if the answer is yes, we won’t know for a long time.

Here’s the odds on the recession start, with Q1 at 19%, same for Q2:

Combining with the probability of recession in 2025:

Between the two sets of betting odds, a recession start in Q4 has 11% probability.

Note we only have preliminary employment numbers for March, and non for other key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC. On the basis of those numbers, NBER BCDC would be unlikely to start date to March (although March could still be a “peak” month in the NBER chronology).