If Avian Flu Hits Chicken Flocks, and the CDC Is Muted, Will That Reduce Egg Prices?

Also, if egg prices are not reported, will higher egg prices matter? From Fox5 Atlanta:

The Trump Administration has frozen many federal health agencies’ communications with the public until at least the end of the month.

The freeze affects the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), based in Atlanta, the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA)—entities tasked with fighting epidemics, ensuring food safety, and advancing disease research, according to a memo obtained by the Associated Press.

Bullet point 2:

• Interrupted Reports: The CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report missed its first publication in over 60 years, halting critical updates like those on the H5N1 avian flu outbreak.

What’s the USDA’s ERS forecast for egg prices?

Figure 1: Dollar price of dozen grade A eggs, n.s.a. (bold black), and January 2025 ERS forecast (teal square), and 95% prediction interval (gray +), all on log scale. Source: BLS, USDA/ERS.

The forecast is based on a ARIMA model with seasonals, as detailed in this technical report. Hence, it does not take into account views on the likelihood (or not) of an avian flu outbreak, aside from that incorporated into the historical time series for egg prices.

Nor does it incorporate Mr. Trump’s executive order, to wit:

I hereby order the heads of all executive departments and agencies to deliver emergency price relief, consistent with applicable law, to the American people and increase the prosperity of the American worker.  This shall include pursuing appropriate actions to:  lower the cost of housing and expand housing supply; eliminate unnecessary administrative expenses and rent-seeking practices that increase healthcare costs; eliminate counterproductive requirements that raise the costs of home appliances; create employment opportunities for American workers, including drawing discouraged workers into the labor force; and eliminate harmful, coercive “climate” policies that increase the costs of food and fuel.

Personally, I think it’s conceivable that letting bird flu run amok could lower egg prices in the short term, although I’m not certain of the mechanics. But then, again, I think von Paulus’ 6th Army will still manage to break out.

 

Here’s the CPI food at home component and forecast.

Figure 2: CPI food at home component, s.a. (bold black), and January 2025 ERS forecast (teal square), and 95% prediction interval (gray +), all on log scale. Source: BLS, USDA/ERS.

The 95% prediction interval encompasses a decline in food at home prices, by year-end.