Per Eeckhout (2023), actuals for CPI and PPI, and nowcast for PCE, headline and core.
Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) for CPI (bold blue), PCE deflator (tan), and PPI (green). PCE observation for March is nowcast as of 4/11. Calculations per Eeckhout (2023). Source: BLS, BEA, via FRED, and Cleveland Fed (accessed 4/11/2024), and author’s calculations.
Figure 2: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) for core CPI (bold blue), core PCE deflator (tan), and core PPI (green). PCE observation for March is nowcast as of 4/11. Calculations per Eeckhout (2023). Source: BLS, BEA, via FRED, and Cleveland Fed (accessed 4/11/2024), and author’s calculations.
Note that instantaneous core CPI has flattened out, while both core PCE deflator and core PPI have declined. However, nowcasted instantaneous core PCE at 2.9% in March remains above the 2% target.