Using data through March.
Figure 1: Recession probability 1 month ahead (blue). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Assumes no recession in March. Source: Author’s calculations.
Pseudo R2 from probit regression of recession on y/y change in Michigan sentiment and 1yr-FFR spread estimated 1986 through 2025M03 is 0.38.
Cautionary note: One false positive in 2022M07.
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