NFP Prospects | Econbrowser

Kalshi betting right now is for 300K reduction in force for the Federal government (h/t Torsten Slok):

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (bold black), SPF forecast (light blue), implied end-2025 with Kalshi bet of 2/23 (green square), assuming 2 contractors for each Federal worker per Slok (red square), all in 000’s. Source: BLS via FRED, Philadelphia Fed, Kalshi (2/23/2025), T.Slok, and author’s calculations.

Personally, I don’t worry so much about the macro impact of fewer workers as much as the disruption and uncertainty engendered (including when the planes start falling out of the sky…)

Figure 2: EPU (blue), Trade Policy Uncertainty (brown). Source: policyuncertainty.com.

According to Caldara et al. (JME, 2020), a rise in Trade Policy Uncertainty (TPU) equal to that in the 2018 trade war decreases investment by 1.5%. Well, from February to July 2018, TPU rose by 189. From October 2024 to January 2025, TPU has risen by … 194.

Add TPU, cutting jobs, erratically declared and capriciously implemented tariffs, and mass deportations, well, then one can worry about the macro outlook.