Categories: Economy

Nowcasting Private NFP using ADP Data


My guess for private NFP:

Figure 1: Private NFP (bold black), nowcast (blue), +/- 1 std error band (gray), Bloomberg consensus (red +). Source: BLS, Bloomberg, author’s calculations.

The nowcast is +176K, vs +125K Bloomberg consensus.

The nowcast is based on this regression:

For comparison, GS provides some big data nowcasts for total NFP (GS adds 20K to ADP to scale up to total NFP).

Goldman Sachs estimate of total NFP is at +165K. One can take 20K off to get implied private NFP (Bloomberg consensus has 23K difference).



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