New Eastern Europe marks its 15th anniversary by reflecting on the political and social changes that have taken place since the magazine was first published. In an editorial titled ‘The story that is still being written’, Adam Reichardt and Iwona Reichardt look back on the magazine’s coverage and analyse how the social and political transformations – and upheavals – of this period have reshaped the region.
Chronicling the events that defined the early years of the magazine’s life, particularly the failure of pro-democracy protests in Russia in 2011–2012 and the Kremlin’s subsequent repressions, the editors note an increasing awareness that ‘the political transformations that had begun two decades prior did not necessarily move in one direction’. Ukraine’s Revolution of Dignity and Russia’s annexation of Crimea only confirmed that the European security order was in crisis.
NEE tracked the rise of authoritarian forces across eastern Europe, from Hungary’s democratic backsliding to the crushing of Alexei Navalny’s anti-corruption campaign in Russia, from illiberal developments in the South Caucasus to Lukashenka’s crackdown in Belarus in 2020 and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. ‘Eleven years after NEE began by asking what Eastern Europe was and where it belonged, the war made clear that these were never merely questions of geography or identity’, write the editors.
Europe’s new divides
Vesna Goldsworthy examines today’s East-West relationships. In an era of freedom of movement, budget flights and changing migration patterns, she finds a continent split along far more complex and fluid lines than in the post-1989 decades.
Traditional concepts have been recycled and can no longer be seen as ‘a simple binary opposition pitching a rich, democratic West against an impoverished East’. Besides the tangible physical and economic symptoms produced by a West-East knowledge transfer that has brought a digital boom to cities like Tallinn, Warsaw and Cluj, today’s divides are largely based on differences in ideas and values.
While western stereotypes about the Balkans persist, Goldsworthy highlights a change in the perception of countries like Poland. Once dismissed as backwards, it is now seen as a sepia-tinted version of Europe ‘as it used to be’ by western conservatives ‘longing for an impossible return to safe, homogenous and traditional societies’. ‘Such nostalgia is often a conservative fantasy, a coping mechanism for the West’s own identity crisis and its diminishing social cohesion’, she writes.
Russia’s war on Ukraine has exposed a new West-East demarcation, with populations in the West more concerned about the post-colonial priorities of the Global South than events in the East. ‘To them, Gaza seems closer than Kyiv’.
Moldova’s moment of truth
Clara Sandgren examines the existential questions facing Moldova as EU accession talks with Brussels move into a new phase, placing the small East European nation ‘in its strongest position since independence’.
But while Chișinău has been praised for its democratic reforms and efforts to fight corruption, it remains institutionally immature, as recent scandals reveal. Meanwhile, Maia Sandu’s revival of discussion about possible reunification with Romania and ongoing speculation about how to re-establish territorial control over the breakaway enclave of Transnistria raise questions about Moldova’s national identity and statehood.
EU officials have assured Chișinău that the unresolved status of Transnistria, which has been economically propped up by Russia since 1992 and hosts a small Russian military presence, will not in itself be an obstacle to EU accession for Moldova – Brussels has no wish to grant Moscow a veto over enlargement. However, writes Sandgren, ‘the reality is more complicated.’ Russian influence over the region has loosened, but Chișinău lacks a clear plan for reintegrating Transnistria, opting to ‘align the economy, postpone the settlement question, and hope that it eventually resolves itself’.
Sandu’s revival of the reunification debate is unlikely to be a coincidence – Moldova is attempting to distance itself from Russia any way it can. Yet this ‘Plan B’ is weak: public support for reunification remains constitutionally insufficient, a Romania-Moldova union would place Russian troops inside the EU, and it furnishes Moscow with an ideal pretext to question the legitimacy of the Moldovan state as a permanent national project.
Building bridges in Belarus
Politically, emotionally and generationally, Belarus has become a deeply polarized society. ‘Almost six years after the protests, the political divide remains one of the defining features of public life’, writes Alana Gebremariam, who served two and a half years in prison for her involvement in student and youth demonstrations against Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s regime in 2020.
Gebremariam argues that it is important for the country’s future stability that people begin to rebuild connections before political change comes to Belarus. Acknowledging that full reconciliation is impossible without political change, institutional reform, and accountability mechanisms, Gebremariam outlines the case for preparatory reconciliation. ‘Keeping channels of communication open, maintaining transnational ties, documenting experiences of repression and migration, and creating space for reflection are all ways of preparing society for a future transition’.
Politically, it is vital that Belarusian democratic forces and their western partners are prepared for different transition scenarios, including 2035, when Lukashenko’s last constitutionally permitted term would end. Without a reconciliatory infrastructure in place, other potential scenarios carry their own risks: a sudden regime collapse would lead to disagreement and mutual accusations; a negotiated transfer of power to pro-democratic political actors would, on the other hand, exclude most of society.
However, there are a number of obstacles to reconciliation. ‘The regime has a structural interest in maintaining polarization, given that division is a substitute for legitimacy’, writes Gebremariam. Belarus is also vulnerable – any further integration with Russia will severely limit the ability of Belarusian actors to influence developments inside the country.
Review by Alastair Gill