Will Household Wealth Be a Tailwind to Consumption in 2024Q3?

Here’s a picture of household net worth, in both nominal and real terms, with my nowcasts for Q3.

Figure 1: Household net worth (blue), nowcast for 2024Q3 (blue square), in billions $; real household net worth (tan), nowcast for 2024Q3 (brown triangle), in millions 2022$, on log scale. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Real net worth deflated using Chained CPI, September value uses Cleveland Fed nowcast as of 10/6/2024. Source:  Federal Reserve Flow of Funds via FRED, BLS, Cleveland Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.

Nominal (real) net worth is nowcasted to rise 2.5%(2.3%) q/q in Q3.

I generated the nowcast for household net worth by a log-log regression, 2021Q3-2024Q2:

worth = 14.184 + 0.382sp500 + 0.243home 

Adj-R2 = 0.91, SER = 0.013, DW = 2.22, NObs = 12. Bold face denotes significance at 10% msl, HAC robust standard errors.

Addendum:

The composition of the net worth is of interest.

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

While the bulk of the gain has been in the high income deciles, the high income deciles also account for a disproportionate share of consumption.