Wisconsin Employment in the Context of the Preliminary Benchmark Revision

Like national employment, Wisconsin employment was downwardly revised (preliminary), by 79K. Splicing in the change as BLS would do yields the following picture of Wisconsin NFP.

Figure 1: Official Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (black), preliminary benchmark revision (light blue), early benchmark revision (tan), all in 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, Philadelphia Fed.

Taken literally, Wisconsin NFP employment (in the preliminary revised) has been unchanged relative to August 2024. The same caveats apply at the state level, regarding the preliminary benchmark, as at the national. Relying on unemployment premium data will probably bias downward the NFP number. Moreover, the preliminary revised observations from April to July are taking the increases in employment recorded by the CES at face value.

Data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) is for covered employment. Plotting this series — which differs in coverage — against a seasonally adjusted (by author) series yields the following picture.

Figure 2: Wisconsin QCEW covered employment, n.s.a. (blue), and seasonally adjusted by author uxing X-13 (bold teal), both in 000’s. Source: BLS, and author’s calculations.

Seasonally adjusted QCEW covered employment has been declining since May 2024, with the decline accelerating after January 2025.