From a fascinating paper by Oli Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber, “The Upcoming Trump Tariffs: What Americans Expect and…
A reader sends me a missive with this line, and (among others) a picture of manufacturing employment. I reproduce (on…
Industrial and manufacturing production (+0.9% m/m vs. +0.3% consensus; +0.6% m/m vs. +0.2% consensus), retail sales (control) surprise on the…
CBO released its ten year outlook today (as did the IMF in the WEO January update). Continued but decelerating growth,…
Are you teaching international economics in the spring? Or just want to learn more about the field? Consider adopting/purchasing this…
Headline up, core down. Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation per Eeckhout (2023) for CPI (blue) chained CPI (lilac), PCE deflator…
Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni has been describing the gap between the establishment NFP series and the CPS employment series as…
Mr. Bruce Hall speculates on the causes for the severity of the LA fires: I remember being in Lompoc, CA…
From NOAA to 2024, and guesstimate for January 2025: Notes: Month-by-month accumulation of estimated costs of each year’s billion-dollar disasters,…
What do different measures say about the trajectory (rather than level) of employment? For nonfarm payroll employment: Figure 1: Change…