Economy

Instantaneous Inflation Rates | Econbrowser

PPI and core PPI y/y slightly above consensus: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) for CPI (bold blue), PCE deflator…

14 hours ago

Instantaneous Core Inflation: Various Measures

Core up, but supercore down: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (tan), supercore CPI (pink), services…

2 days ago

Further Dollar Appreciation: Implications | Econbrowser

What else would one expect from expectations of expanded budget deficits, higher incipient inflation in the context of a Taylor…

3 days ago

Did the Trade Balance Improve with Tariffs? Did Imports Fall? Did Ag Exports Rise?

Answers: No. No. No. Figure 1: Net exports in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR (blue, left scale), nominal as share of GDP (tan,…

4 days ago

Analyses on the Impacts of Trump’s Proposed Ultimate Solution

Given the results of the election, and Mr. Trump’s statement that deportations will start immediately, there will be a need…

5 days ago

Debt-to-GDP under Trump 1.0 | Econbrowser

A reminder, so when next you hear about fiscal restraint. Figure 1: Debt held by the public as share of…

6 days ago

“The Recession of 2025 Will Be Backdated” to 2022

Thet’s  Jeffrey Tucker in the Epoch Times via ZeroHedge. It’s a reasonable supposition that a recession will become obvious to…

7 days ago

Inflation Breakevens, Term Spreads Up pre-FOMC

As of yesterday COB: Figure 1: Ten year breakeven (blue), five year breakeven (red), in %. Source: Treasury via FRED.…

1 week ago

Everyday Price Inflation at 0.3% y/y?

Versus 2.4% for the CPI (in logs). Lots of people think the government’s statistics understates the true inflation rate. It…

1 week ago

Some Last Pictures: Trade War 2.0

Impact on a typical family: Source: Brendan Duke, CAP. From McKibben, Hogan, Noland (2024), cost to US economy from 10%…

1 week ago