PPI and core PPI y/y slightly above consensus: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) for CPI (bold blue), PCE deflator…
Core up, but supercore down: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (tan), supercore CPI (pink), services…
What else would one expect from expectations of expanded budget deficits, higher incipient inflation in the context of a Taylor…
Answers: No. No. No. Figure 1: Net exports in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR (blue, left scale), nominal as share of GDP (tan,…
Given the results of the election, and Mr. Trump’s statement that deportations will start immediately, there will be a need…
A reminder, so when next you hear about fiscal restraint. Figure 1: Debt held by the public as share of…
Thet’s Jeffrey Tucker in the Epoch Times via ZeroHedge. It’s a reasonable supposition that a recession will become obvious to…
As of yesterday COB: Figure 1: Ten year breakeven (blue), five year breakeven (red), in %. Source: Treasury via FRED.…
Versus 2.4% for the CPI (in logs). Lots of people think the government’s statistics understates the true inflation rate. It…
Impact on a typical family: Source: Brendan Duke, CAP. From McKibben, Hogan, Noland (2024), cost to US economy from 10%…