Economy

Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-December

Industrial production -0.9% vs. +0.1% consensus (m/m).Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC, plus monthly GDP.  …

2 hours ago

If You Thought Grocery Prices Were High, Wait for Mass Deportation

Wages for farm workers and food processing will likely rise, if the past is any guide. Figure 1: Farm worker…

1 day ago

Guest Contribution: “The Diminishing Impact of Exchange Rates on China’s Exports”

Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a…

2 days ago

Trump: “Tariffs are going to make our country rich”

From Reuters: In an interview with NBC’s Meet the Press that aired on Sunday, Trump said he did not believe…

3 days ago

Eggs | Econbrowser

Bloomberg points out eggs were big in the PPI, accounting for 80% of the y/y rise (egg prices spiking due…

4 days ago

US Tariff Pass-Through on Chinese Imports Is High

So be prepared. From Feng, Han, and Li (2023): As noted in the article, machinery, electronics and optical equipment accounted…

5 days ago

Instantaneous Inflation in November (and October)

Up for CPI and chained CPI. Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) for PCE deflator (black), for PCE deflator market…

6 days ago

The Likelihood of a Plaza Accord 2.0

Mark Sobel at OMFIF discusses the likelihood of an new Plaza Accord to depreciate the dollar. Given one would need…

1 week ago

Disingenuousnous Watch | Econbrowser

EJ Antoni/Heritage writes: Another month, another record high for the number of gov’t employees   Well, yes. Of course, population…

1 week ago

Guest Contribution: “The Business cycle and Economic Policy Uncertainty in France”

Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of Economics at Skema Business School, Paris and Chair…

1 week ago