CPS based series adjusted to NFP way below official NFP, early benchmark. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from CES (blue),…
Bloomberg consensus is 4%. This implies near trigger for the Sahm Rule (in real time): Figure 1 (corrected): Real time…
Then instead of 135224 thousand private employment in April, it would be 135509 thousand. Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment…
Last week we got GDP and wages and salaries for Q1, as well as employment and coincident indicators for May.…
Monthly GDP up two months in a row. Final sales in May up, but not offsetting completely decline in April.…
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Christopher A. Hartwell (ZHAW School of Management and Law,…
With Michigan final June survey out, we have this picture: Figure 1: Year-on-year actual CPI inflation (bold black), and expected inflation…
PCE hits consensus. Instantaneous (weighted average of m/m inflation, with more recent observations having higher impact) headline and core down.…
That’s Mr. Trump on inflation. Here’s the data: Figure 1: CPI for food at home (blue), chained (tan), both in…
From a just-published article in Foreign Affairs: The story of the dollar is, ultimately, less about the United States’ strength…