Economy
FT-Booth September Survey of Macroeconomists: Growth or Recession?
For GDP, no recession on the short horizon: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), FT-Booth September median forecast (blue box), NY…
End-of-Week Nowcasts | Econbrowser
St. Louis and NY Feds have new nowcasts. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Survey of Professional Forecasters August median forecast…
Real Average Wages | Econbrowser
On the rise: Figure 1: Real average earnings for production and non-supervisory workers, CPI deflated (blue), chained CPI deflated (tan),…
Mackintosh/WSJ: “A Recession Signal Is Flashing Red. Or Is It?”
Article today on whether it matters if dis-inversion occurs because short rates fall, or long rates rise. Two years ago,…
The Net Petroleum Balance | Econbrowser
In real dollars: Figure 1: Net petroleum balance, in bn.Ch2017$ (black). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA,…
Nowcasts – Updated | Econbrowser
GDPNow Q3 growth nowcast now up to 2.5%, from 2.1%. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Survey of Professional Forecasters August…
When Did the Debt-to-GDP Ratio Jump in the Last Decade?
Federal debt held by the public as a share of GDP: Figure 1: Federal debt held by public, as share…
EJ Antoni/Heritage on What Unemployment Rate We Should Be Looking At
EJ Antoni/Heritage writes alarmingly about how excluding marginally attached workers from the calculation of unemployment is misleading: Once you factor…
The Ito-McCauley Database on Individual Central Bank Reserve Holdings
Hiro Ito and Robert McCauley have compiled a dataset(first discussed in this 2019 working paper) of the currency composition of international reserves over…
![A Puzzle: Private NFP and the Preliminary Benchmark vs. Current Official [updated]](https://washingtondigitalnews.online/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/private_nfp_earlybench1-346x188.png)
A Puzzle: Private NFP and the Preliminary Benchmark vs. Current Official [updated]
The puzzle remains: despite an under-consensus 99K addition to private ADP-Stanford NFP (far below consensus 144K). ADP cumulative change above…