It’s commonplace to correlate term spreads with future economic activity measured one way or thSo, while other. Recessions in the…
Industrial and manufacturing production down at consensus rate (-0.3% m/m for both). Core retail sales +0.1% vs. consensus +0.3% m/m.…
PPI and core PPI y/y slightly above consensus: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) for CPI (bold blue), PCE deflator…
Core up, but supercore down: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (tan), supercore CPI (pink), services…
What else would one expect from expectations of expanded budget deficits, higher incipient inflation in the context of a Taylor…
Answers: No. No. No. Figure 1: Net exports in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR (blue, left scale), nominal as share of GDP (tan,…
Given the results of the election, and Mr. Trump’s statement that deportations will start immediately, there will be a need…
A reminder, so when next you hear about fiscal restraint. Figure 1: Debt held by the public as share of…
Thet’s Jeffrey Tucker in the Epoch Times via ZeroHedge. It’s a reasonable supposition that a recession will become obvious to…
As of yesterday COB: Figure 1: Ten year breakeven (blue), five year breakeven (red), in %. Source: Treasury via FRED.…