Paul Krugman writes on The Dollar and the US Trade Deficit today, and reminds me of my favorite graph (makes…
Top of my list: Source: Kalshi, accessed 1/3/2025. Would this be bad news? Well, yes. But worse yet given the…
JW Mason asserts that, in focusing on the real exchange rate, I’m on the side of relative prices being the…
Once again, Heritage’s EJ Antoni speaks (on Fox) about a manufacturing recession, focusing on employment. I’ll just point out that,…
The Philadelphia Fed’s Coincident Index is out, 2.1% m/m annualized (2.6% y/y): Figure 1: Implied nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold…
With December 31 data, here’s the picture of term spreads: Figure 1: 10yr-3mo Treasury spread (blue), 10yr-2yr Treasury…
From CBO, a working paper by Andre R. Neveu (FDIC) and Jeffrey Schafer (CBO) on the debt sensitivity of the…
Oren Cass argues the idea of comparative advantage driving trade is outdated. I agree to a certain extent, but he…
In Tuesday’s NYT, Oren Cass makes the case for protectionism. It would be wonderful to see economists willing to try…
Consumption and personal income ex-transfers growth accelerate. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), implied NFP from preliminary…