Michigan is down in July, while business unit costs are up slightly. Figure 1: Year-on-year actual CPI inflation (bold black),…
For Rep/Dem, 53 cents/51 cents. Notes: Last o observation end-of-day July 26. + denote 4pm ET on 7/27/2024. For Kamala…
As measured by the coincident index, over the last 3 months: Figure 1: 3 month growth in coincident index map.…
As of today: For comparison, here is the y/y (official) inflation rate (through June). With the policy rate at…
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.8% annual rate in…
From PredictIt, 4:30pm ET: Republican/Democratic win probabilities back to where they were the day before the debate. Source: Predict, accessed…
Four out of five measures down: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (tan), supercore CPI…
For all private workers, as well as production and nonsupervisory: Figure 1: Wisconsin average hourly wages for all private sector…
Most recent forecasts indicate no recession, Q2 nowcasts raised (GDPNow, NY Fed), weekly indicators (Lewis, Mertens, Stock; Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims)…
Torsten Slok presents this graph, and writes “The bottom line is that the tailwind to consumer spending for homeowners and…