For whom the bell tolls? Undocumented? Documented but not naturalized? All non-native born? Native born with both parents undocumented? People…
From DWD today: Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (bold blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark series (pink), Wisconsin May Economic…
Messages from the WSJ July Survey: Source: July WSJ survey. Source: July WSJ survey. Source: July WSJ survey. Also,…
As of 7/15 and month ago: Source: Atlanta Fed, accessed 7/16/2024. The path has moved down noticeably over the last…
Probabilities have peaked, using a standard spread model. Here is an updated assessment of recession probabilities (for 12 months ahead),…
In a recent SF Fed Economic Letter, Sylvain Leduc, Huiyu Li, and Zheng Liu answered the question: “Are Markups Driving…
Released today by CEA: Well first a picture depicting plausibility: Onto the conclusion: Strategically targeted tariffs are an important tool…
I’ve spent the last week seeing lots of presentations on macro and international finance. Of particular interest are some papers…
CPI m/m (headline, core) below consensus (-0.1% vs +0.1%, +0.1 vs +0.2, respectively). Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation per Eeckhout (2023)…
…although incomplete data for 2022. Figure 1: Geometric average of reserve holdings (expressed in USD) for reporting central banks. Very…