Conference Board’s Confidence Index exceeds consensus (103.3 > 100.9), with July index revised up. Here’re August readings for confidence, sentiment and news.
Figure 1: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (blue, left scale), Conference Board Consumer Confidence (tan, left scale), both demeaned and normalized by standard deviation (for the displayed sample period); and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) Daily News Sentiment Index (black, right scale). The News Index observation for August is through 8/25/2024. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: U.Mich via FRED, Conference Board via Investing.com, SF Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.
Here’s a close-up on what has happened to sentiment since the Democratic Presidential candidate has switched.
Figure 1: Change since July 2024 in University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Democrats (blue), in Consumer Sentiment – Republican (red), and Conference Board Consumer Confidence (chartreuse), Source: U.Mich, Conference Board via Investing.com, and author’s calculations.
Movement in sentiment has diverged for Democrats vs. Republicans.