WSJ July Survey: 2025 q4/q4 Growth at 1%

From WSJ July survey out today:

Figure 1: GDP (bold black), WSJ July survey mean (tan), lowest/highest 10% based on 2025 q4/q4 growth (gray lines), GDPNow of 7/9 (inverted light blue triangle), NY Fed nowcast of 7/11 (red square), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Source: BEA, WSJ, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, and author’s calculations.

Only one forecast is for two consecutive negative quarters of GDP growth (AC Cutts, five consecutive quarters), while there are many forecasts of an individual quarter of negative growth.

The WSJ survey mean trajectory is close to the May SPF median. Not surprisingly, the WSJ growth rate for Q2 is just between the Atlanta and NY Fed nowcasts (see here).

A cautionary note from the WSJ:

Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG US, cautioned that official economic indicators, which combine actual data from surveys with estimates, often struggle to capture inflection points.

“As good as our stats are, they just weren’t made for these kinds of very large moves in policy that cause a knee-jerk reaction,” Swonk said. “It makes it even harder to read the tea leaves.”

Trump’s policies—which besides tariffs include a clampdown on illegal immigration, stepped-up deportations and a just-signed megabill cutting taxes and some spending—may also take time to filter into the real economy.