From the National Corn Growers Association: U.S. soybeans and corn are prime targets for tariffs. As the top two export…
Charles Payne joins the recession camp. Current indicators are not very supportive of an imminent recession: Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP)…
Employment for October and monthly GDP for September, in the set of variables followed by the NBER’s BCDC: Figure 1:…
NFP +12K vs. consensus +106K, private NFP -28K vs. +90K; but wage growth (0.4% vs. 0.3% m/m) and average weekly…
Based on ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab series for October. Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment (bold black), nowcast based on…
GDP under Bloomberg consensus of 3.0% at 2.8% (GDPNow nails it). ADP private NFP change at 233K vs. Bloomberg consensus…
Never just look the headline number. The “why’s” matter. GDPNow down from 3.3% q/q AR to 2.8%, while GS tracking…
Reader Moonmac argues the case that we are in a recession, in a rejoinder my paper “Recession since 2022? A…
EJ Antoni and Peter St. Onge argue we have been deceived by incorrect deflators. Rebuttal, showing the irreproducibility of their…
The Central Bank of Russia today raised the policy rate from 19% to 21%. That’s assuming (1) adaptive expectations, and…