As attributed to Paul Samuelson. So, with trepidation, I show the SP500 and CAPE over the last half decade: Figure…
EJ Antoni concludes we’re in a recession, and elsewhere, have been since 2022. On the other hand, he argues (rightly)…
The March FT-Booth survey is out; median q4/q4 growth for 2025 is 1.6%, down from 2.3% in the December survey.…
The March FT-Booth survey is out; median q4/q4 growth for 2025 is 1.6%, down from 2.3% in the December survey (see…
From “Recession Blonde: How Economic Uncertainty Spurred the Latest Hair Color Trend”, March 17th: What is “recession blonde?” Recession blonde…
That’s from today’s GDPNow release (Calculation: As of the 7 March release, the reported GDPNow was -1.6%, while adjusted was…
Industrial and manufacturing production out today, retail sales out yesterday. All three are up, with IP +0.7% m/m and mfg…
That’s the title of an article by Jasmine Cui for NBC, citing me, Jeffrey Frankel (formerly on the NBER BCDC),…
Latest updated data, 3/16 at 1074. Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), and centered 7 day moving average (red, left…
From the CPI release, food at home (aka grocery) prices: Figure 1: CPI food at home component (bold black), ERS…