President-elect Trump has mentioned a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada. Time to think about how this would affect Wisconsin,…
Daniel Lacalle via Zerohedge writes Professors EJ Antony and Peter St Onge recently published an excellent study, “Recession Since 2022:…
Including HICP and nowcasted PCE deflator. Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation per Eeckhout (2023) for CPI (blue), chained CPI (red), HICP…
The percentage change is less than that for the CES estimate. Does this mean there are a lot fewer people…
“Trumpflation” Risks Likely Overstated by Lance Roberts via Zerohedge: The question is whether policies being considered by the next Presidential…
Locking up the butter in Russia (CNN). Official inflation in October was 0.8% m/m (annualize that and it’s about 10%.…
Since the incoming administration has indicated the deportations will start on day one, I thought it of use to consider…
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Joshua Aizenman (University of Southern California) and Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris…
Not that it ever disappeared completely. But expect the EPU to rise as the tariffs start flying, and the deportations…
NFP and private NFP up (although below recent peaks), while civilian employment rises. Figure 1: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (dark…