Headline up, core down. Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation per Eeckhout (2023) for CPI (blue) chained CPI (lilac), PCE deflator…
Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni has been describing the gap between the establishment NFP series and the CPS employment series as…
Mr. Bruce Hall speculates on the causes for the severity of the LA fires: I remember being in Lompoc, CA…
From NOAA to 2024, and guesstimate for January 2025: Notes: Month-by-month accumulation of estimated costs of each year’s billion-dollar disasters,…
What do different measures say about the trajectory (rather than level) of employment? For nonfarm payroll employment: Figure 1: Change…
Iterating toward new readings for Econ 442 (Macroeconomic Policy). Last year I added to the undergrad course climate change and…
From Rhodium Group (h/t Stephen Nagy): Some alternative estimates from BOFIT (November): The lower bound on the BOFIT alternatives is…
Five year breakeven up, dollar up. Figure 1: Five year Treasury breakeven (black, left scale), 5 year expected inflation (light…
This forecast from the Wisconsin Dept of Revenue based on S&P Global national forecast finalized before the election. Figure 1: Wisconsin…
A year ago, Laurent Ferrara and I documented the explanatory power of the term spread for recessions across countries. Here’re…